By Jeff Pett, Fleetwood Group
This year’s NSSEA Furniture and Equipment show is fading in our memories as we head into the holidays and gear up for the New Year. The show was a good one for us… our booth was full most of the time and we had a lot of fun new stuff to show off. We even made a YouTube video tour of our booth this year which allowed those who could not make it to San Antonio to see what we were displaying. (Check it out by searching for Fleetwood Group on YouTube.) It was a good way to close out 2011.
Is everyone as ready as I am to move on, to leave 2011 behind? My sense is that most of us in this industry are a bit fatigued. This was another tough year. It’s been a long down-cycle, hasn’t it? By my count it has been two and a half years since the wind came out of our sails/sales.
What will 2012 have in store for us? Most people we talked to at the show seem to think that next summer will look a lot like last summer. Then the summer of 2013 will “take off”. I’m now in my sixth year in this business which is probably less than 1/3 of the average tenure of all of you, but long enough to have figured out that business forecasting is not our strength. I heard very similar forecasts last year at about this time. Our industry seems to be a trailing indicator of the economy – - that is, we peter out months after the economy in general does, and we kick it back into gear months after everyone else is out buying cars and boats.
There is some good news in our business, however. The number of students continues to go up, and parents generally want to spend money to assure their kids have good schools. States are beginning to figure out how to fund schools better and there are bonds passing at an increasing rate in pockets around the country. Communities are better when there are good schools in them, and people want to move into those communities. Employers like to have good local schools in order to attract the best talent to work for them. Aging pieces of furniture and equipment that have been nursed along to last a few more years will eventually have to be replaced. In our industry, a long down cycle suppresses demand, it doesn’t eliminate it. This business will come back. And I believe it will come back strong.
Will it be this year? It is an election year, after all, and those seem to be magically better financial years than most. Even here in Michigan a lot of industries have been hiring and the national unemployment numbers are beginning to show signs of improvement. So as a trailing indicator maybe our industry is getting ready to join the trend. Whether that happens in 2012 or 2013, take heart! This is an industry that will come back, maybe stronger than ever.
Meanwhile, enjoy the holidays with family and friends! Here’s to a Happy New Year for all of us!!
